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factfullnessdata enthusiastbiasrules of thumb

Factfulness – Facts Matter, So Does Being Aware of Our Bias Against Facts

Factfulness is the collaborative work of Dr. Rosling, attempts to explain the general human condition around the world. It is a statistical therapy to the data enthusiast: Things are not as bad as we think! We are not talking about Northern European optimism, or the wishful thinking of a pep-talker, we are talking about being factful.

written by Mahmut Karayel
20 Jan 2021
S&P500PE RatioGrowthCOVID-19

Price to Equity Ratio and Growth

As COVID-19 spreads with full speed, the stock prices are doing extremely well. The average price to earnings ratio (PE) of S&P 500 companies is at a historical high level of 37.4. Such are the conditions set up with the zero-interest-rate policy of the US Federal Reserve and zero cost electronic trading that many brokerages offer.

written by Mahmut Karayel
08 Dec 2020
ERCOTCaliforniaCAISOElectricity MarketLMPRenewable EnergyRPS

What is wrong with the California Electricity Market?

Even though the marginal cost of electricity generation has steadily decreased, this benefit did not reflect on the electricity bills of California residents. Eagerness of California to incent behind the meter solar generation and mandate RPS standards earlier than other states, increased the average cost of wholesale electricity. We expect that future regulatory adjustments will correct some of the causes of this unintended consequence.

written by Mahmut Karayel
24 Nov 2020
COVID19CoronavirusUSElectionsTrumpBiden

US Elections and the Spread of the COVID

The COVID-19 pandemic was expected to be a big determinant of the election results, but was it? Clearly, immediate economy is also a big concern for the great majority of the population.

written by Mahmut Karayel
11 Nov 2020
COVID19CoronavirusUSGlobalCOVID-19 Data

ALTADATA Daily Updated COVID-19 Tracker

As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves globally, it is important to stay up-to-date with daily case counts and outcomes by geography. ALTADATA provides the latest daily data and historical trends for all countries and all US states. You can interactively and visually examine this dataset or download it for further analysis.

written by ALTADATA
14 Oct 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis - Two Swans Concluded

This week we conclude our comparison of the markets during the Covid-19 crisis with the markets during the 2008 financial crisis by focusing on the trends of the last decade that helped Wall Street in 2020.

written by Mahmut Karayel
26 Aug 2020
bayesianpandemiccorona virusprior beliefsupdating probabilities

Bayesian Thinking During the Pandemic

It is said that some COVID-19 antibody tests have 40% to 50% false positive rate. How much shall we believe in the results of these tests? In this blog, we will discuss how to interpret new data (test result), and changing our prior belief upon observing new data, the so called Bayesian Thinking.

written by Mahmut Karayel
06 Aug 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis - Continued (Ninth Part)

This week we continue with our analysis of the markets during the Covid-19 crisis by re-examining our assumption that Wall Street and Main Street intersect. Or, do they each run parallel to each other in their own universe?

written by Mahmut Karayel
14 Jul 2020
AutomotiveTESLAMarketCapValuation

Yet Another Perspective on TESLA Valuation

TESLA's market valuation surpassed $254 Billion as of July 7, 2020 which makes it the 15th largest US Company in terms of market cap. This article provides facts on comparison valuation of TESLA against other manufacturers.

written by Mahmut Karayel
07 Jul 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

COVID Confirms - It is a Winner Takes All Economy

This week we continue with our analysis of the markets during the Covid-19 crisis by re-examining our assumption that Wall Street and Main Street intersect. Or, do they each run parallel to each other in their own universe?

written by Mahmut Karayel
31 May 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis - How Long Will It Last?

It took six months from the day that Lehman Brothers failed in 2008 to when the stock market recovery began in March 2009. We started tracking our comparison of the markets during the COVID-19 crisis to the Financial Crisis almost three months ago. As it seems like we are not going to be out of the woods for some weeks to come

written by Mahmut Karayel
17 May 2020
demandenergy demandcorona virus

Impact of COVID-19 on California Electricity Demand

Two of the primary variable inputs to our modern economy are labor and energy. We are all watching the labor markets and the record unemployment claims week after week. Last month, we also have witnessed, for the first time, negative oil prices caused by disappearing demand. But here I will focus on probably the most important input, electricity. What is happening with electricity consumption while California shelters in place?

written by Mahmut Karayel
08 May 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis - The Great Decoupling Continues

It has been 10 weeks since we started keeping track of the market downturn. Over thirty million unemployment claims have been filed in the past six weeks. April was the best month since January 1987 for the stock market. In short, the great disconnect continues. The disconnect is puzzling many market researchers.

written by Mahmut Karayel
03 May 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis - The Great Decoupling

This is the fifth update of the previous blogs' as we promised. S&P 500 is having a mini bull run. Yet most economists agree that this will be the worst economic downturn we have seen in the last 90 years. US, especially New York, has become the epicenter of the pandemic.

written by Mahmut Karayel
20 Apr 2020
operating marginkpivolatilitysectors equity markets

New Light On Old KPIs - Operating Margin

I will devote a few blogs to important KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators) and discuss their meaning in a new light. I have not heard financial advisors talk about these KPI’s in the same simple meaning that I will describe here. Let’s start this week with the operating margin. In these very uncertain times interpreting these KPI’s with a new insight is ever more important.

written by Mahmut Karayel
15 Apr 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis - Continued (Fifth Part)

This is the fourth update of last three weeks' blogs as we promised. We have now completed seventh weeks of the COVID-19 Black Swan. During the seventh week of the COVID-19 Black Swan something strange happened!

written by Mahmut Karayel
10 Apr 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis - Continued (Fourth Part)

This is the third update of last three weeks' blogs as we promised. We have now completed sixth weeks of the COVID-19 Black Swan. The chaotic psyche of the COVID-10 market started to show similarities to the Financial Crisis.

written by Mahmut Karayel
04 Apr 2020
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Soldiers of the Work at Home Revolution

At ALTADATA, we have been working remotely for almost five years now; we learned a lot from this experience and wanted to share tips, tricks, and tools that make working from home easier.

written by ALTADATA Team
30 Mar 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis - Continued (Third Part)

This is the second update of last two weeks' blogs as we promised. We have now completed five weeks of Black Swan. Annualized volatility of the COVID-19 Reality Crisis is still increasing. It is now at 86.8%.

written by Mahmut Karayel
28 Mar 2020
airlinescorona crashbail-outshare buybackCEO compensationEPS

What Kind of Bail-Out Does Each Company Deserve?

United Airlines (UAL) CEO Oscar Munoz went to Congress and asked for a nearly $60 billion bail-out for the airline industry, accompanied with a thinly veiled threat that if UAL does not get this infusion, it may have to lay off even more employees than it had already planned. Is this the best way the US treasury can spend $60 billion? Are we to choose which airline to save? What happened to the corporate tax windfall that UAL and other airlines got in 2018? Why not ask the banks for a loan?

written by Mahmut Karayel
24 Mar 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis - Continued

This is the update of last weeks blog as we promised. Annualized volatility of the COVID-19 Reality Crisis is now at 84%. What this means is that there is 1 out of 6 chance that an investor may lose 84% of his investment by the end of the year.

written by Mahmut Karayel
20 Mar 2020
financial crisisvolatilitycorona virus

Markets In The Corona Virus Crisis

In the past few days, several wise people who have seen multiple market crises stated that they’ve never seen anything like this. Vaccine research is fully under way. If this crisis ends with a vaccine it will be much different than the financial crises which required years of massive quantitative easing to recover. Hopefully we will not be social distancing for long.

written by Mahmut Karayel
14 Mar 2020
equity marketscorona crashdaily return

Keep Calm and Look At The Fundamentals

On March 9, 2020, the US stock market’s favorite index S&P500 fell 7.6%, the biggest daily drop since the 2008 financial crisis. Blame it on the corona virus, blame it on the bad timing of the Saudis and the Russians to get into a price war. The important thing is that it happened …and it wasn’t supposed to.

written by Mahmut Karayel
09 Mar 2020
electricitymarketplaceworld-bankbig-data

Electricity Enlightens Development Only to Some Extent

High electricity consumption can be considered as a indicator of development. Is it really? Let's look at human development index and electricity consumption.

written by Mahmut Karayel
04 Mar 2020
altadatamarketplacebig-data

Why A Data Marketplace

We opened this data marketplace, altadata.io, for data users and data providers. Our site is new. Visit us often (or better yet, subscribe) to see new data products and new marketplace features, especially on quick insights.

written by Mahmut Karayel
25 Feb 2020