MARKETS IN THE CORONA VIRUS CRISIS (Continued on 2019-03-27)
- This is the update of last weeks blog as we promised. We have now completed five weeks of Black Swan.
- The week of March 23 has seen a comeback. But most big one day comebacks happen during a crash.
- Annualized volatility of the COVID-19 Reality Crisis is still increasing. It is now at 86.8%.
- What this means is that there is 1 out of 6 chance that an investor may lose 86.8% of his investment within a year.
More volatility may to come. We are on COVID-19's schedule, not on our schedule. This is totally against conventional business pysche.
- We are viewing this as a worldwide disaster and taking emergency measures.
- Please take polite requests by the officials seriously.
- Virus effecting everybody equally has to a large extend silenced the haters and the conspiracy theorists.
When the dust settles, no assumption will be spared. We will re-examine, disect and digest all of our assumptions.
The graph below shows the value of a $10,000 portfolio during the two most severe downturns in the past 80 years.
Volatility is more severe in the Corona Virus Reality down-turn.
Please share your thoughts in the comments section.
Check out previous posts here:
- Part 1: https://www.altadata.io/blog/markets-in-the-corona-virus-crisis
- Part 2: https://www.altadata.io/blog/markets-in-the-corona-virus-crisis-first-update